Season 12 - Week 1

In a break from the normal analysis, I have done some analysis on who we are picking and who we are betting against.

The top 5 teams picked are predominantly driven from the autopicks: 

Most Popular Picks  
Man Utd 136
Chelsea 120
Celtic 119
Liverpool 109
Arsenal 108

 

It is the tranche below that that is interesting.  Blackburn for some reason are the 6th most popular team, followed predominantly by other mid-range Premiership teams.  Who the fools are that are backing Newcastle and West Brom I don’t know!  It certainly appears that there is some picking from the heart, with “romantic” teams such as West Ham, Nottm Forest and Wolves banking on the heroics of yesteryear.  Leeds are the only team in the list currently outside the top two tiers of football. 

Blackburn 107
Rangers 101
Everton 92
Portsmouth 92
Man City 80
Aston Villa 78
Newcastle 70
Birmingham 69
Reading 67
Tottenham 66
West Brom 66
Leeds 65
Sunderland 63
Cardiff 58
Bolton 56
West Ham 55
Nottm Forest 54
Wolverhampton 53
Preston 52
Watford 51

 

Fulham are the most hated / underrated team, with people losing over £33 betting against them.  Of the remainder Boro, Bolton and Wigan largely break even betting against them, but Tottenham hating can take you a long way…. All the way to a £29 profit. 

Bet Against  
Fulham 95
Middlesbrough 94
Bolton 93
Wigan 90
Tottenham 81

 

Betting against Man U can be hugely profitable making on average 99p per game, followed closely by Hartlepool and Shrewsbury(?).  People clearly know who Accrington Stanley are, and how profitable it is to bet against them. 

Bet Against (Best)  
Man Utd 0.99
Hartlepool 0.98
Shrewsbury 0.90
Accrington Stanley 0.61
Notts County 0.61

 

No-one has ever won betting against Annan, Rangers or Brechin (min 5 games), equally Valenciennes and Wycombe appear poor choices. 

Bet Against (Worst)
Annan Athletic -1
Rangers -1
Brechin -1
Valenciennes -0.825
Wycombe -0.825

 

Hope this helps!

 

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