Season 9 - Week 9

Catskinning - By JR Hartley

It always fascinates me that there are various different ways to rise to the top of weekend predictor.  If we take our top 5, we see the various different styles:

Ben Drury - Go Nuclear - This technique involves hitting one big pay-day in the season, he nailed a 17.00 winner and now just needs to play safe for a practically guaranteed overall title.  As previously employed by N Simms, T Hughes, D Pilkington and M Bailey...... you'll notice these guys are not in the uppoer reaches of the league, it is not a consistent approach and will often leave you marooned in the relegation zone in week 6, without a winner and needing a miracle to survive.  But I like it, it's ballsy.

Steven Baker - Picking by numbers - I like this strategy, it mainly involves going safe early on, guaranteeing a reasonable season and then looking to pick a big winner after 3 or 4 safe picks.  A bit like the batsmen in cricket who blocks 3 and then takes a huge swipe at the next ball.  As previous employed by M Gibbons, N Lines, Devon Malcolm.

Chris Roberts - Softly Softly Catchee Monkey - No picks above 2.25 this season, most in the region of 1.4-1.6, this relies on making  practically no errors.  As previously employed by B Willey, A Ono and AC Milan.

Jonathan Stapleton - Away the Lads - This involves often picking the team that is just favourite, normally in the range 2.4-2.7, but almost always the away team.  I like this strategy, you are often picking a team that would be nailed on at home, and taking advantage of the bookies predeliction for homes.  As employed by D Lloyd, G Elder, G Lewis, R Ingham.

David Rosser - Value in Value - Mr Rosser isn't afraid of long odds, or short odds, he just picks teams he thinks are overpriced.  Sometimes this can lead to weeks without a winner, but when he is paid off, it is often a significant pay day.  The all-time leader, there are very few like him, but N Kelly is a notable luminary, although he often follows Away the Lads strategies.

So it's the last week, you all know what you need to do to stay up or go up, so many will have a big decision to make, I thought I would help you.  First up Premiership results are solid and predictable (see below) and make a 9% return on average, but that is dwarfed by the Scottish Premiership (29%), League one (18%) and the French (25%)and German (8%) Leagues.  For more than one reason avoid Italy but also Spain, the Championship and League 2.

Picks      £          Return
Barclays Premier League 210 18.82 9%
Coca-Cola League Championship 93 -7.17 -8%
Coca-Cola League One 66 11.6 18%
Coca-Cola League Two 69 -15 -22%
Scotland Premier League 50 14.69 29%
Scotland Division One 2 -2 -100%
Scotland Division Two 11 -4.12 -37%
Scotland Division Three 2 2.07 104%
France Le Championnat 15 3.76 25%
Germany Bundesliga I 28 2.22 8%
Italy Serie A 22 -5.31 -24%
Spain Primera Liga 20 -4.33 -22%
World Cup Qualifying 89 -8.85 -10%
Grand Total 677 6.38 1%

Go away, at the very least, stop picking those infernal draws, you lose 18% on them!

Type Picks       Points                   %
Away Win 271 14.18 5%
Draw 21 -3.87 -18%
Home Win 385 -3.93 -1%
Grand Total 677

6.38

1%

Go North!  Well mainly, certainly Hull (net £35.50 gain), Sunderland (£15.87) and the Scottish teams appear to be the big winners when picked.

Hull

35.5
Sunderland 15.87
Leicester 6.25
Liverpool 5.66
Bradford 5.5
Celtic 5.29
Exeter 4.33
Kilmarnock 4.1
Rangers 4.1
Schalke 3.97

Nobody likes a favourite!  AC Milan, Man U and Arsenal have slipped up the most people.  Accrington Stanley, who are they..... exactly.

AC Milan -8
Man Utd -6.85
Arsenal -6.44
Wigan -6.13
Everton -4.4
Middlesbrough -4.18
Accrington Stanley -4
Luton -4
Nottm Forest -4
QPR -4
Sheff Wed -4
Tottenham -4
Walsall -4

Hope this helps, good luck all!

 

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