Season 6 - Week 1

 

Not a great deal to talk about in Week 1, superb picks from Tim Lines and Simon Gurd, gives them early season hope.  Colchester beating West Brom was not an obvious pick, but clearly they saw something the rest of us didn't.  Solid picking all around saw all the leagues pick more winners than losers, showing us that with a bit of sense a big win is on the cards.

Good days for the Gibbons, Lines and Jones clans, saw 8/8 winners, alhough the Inghams had an off weekend, both coming unstuck.

Thought I'd do some statistical analysis as it's an early week.   On the basis of one week alone, it is best to go safe, but not too safe.

Bankers (1-1.6) 100% Average return 45p

Solid (1.61-2.2) 76% Average Return 49p

Moderately Risky (2.21-3) 47% Average Return 11p

Crazy (3+) 25% Average Return -20p

It is worth noting that, the legends of the game (Lines either, Kelly, Noyce on his current run, Finch, Ingham (R) and dare I say Gibbons jr - who have all won consistently over time) tend to bet in the Solid / Moderately Risky category, although glory can be had in the crazy category, it has yet to prove a sound long-term strategy.  Although it must be added that Wickett and (to a degree Rosser) are beginning to carve their niches in the riskier picks.  Although the bankers have had a good week, they tend to lose in the long-run as they require a long-winning streak for each loss.  They do however increase the chances of a team win.

The Pele League

Potential winnings: £3476 each
Result: 7/10

Lines jr starts his bid for a first Pele title in fine style, a little like Manchester the trophy cabinet is a little too one-sided in the Lines household and this may be the season it is redressed.  Smith continues his fine form and must be a contender.  Paul Drury's brush with relegation seems to have been put behind him and a better season beckons.  Rob "Record Breaker" Noyce forges on with his 10th straight winning pick and again, in an open league, must figure in the title race.  David "Mr Consistent" Lloyd, who has thrice ended a season between £1 and £2 is right where he always is, mid-table. 

In a poor week for Champions, the reigning Pele champion, Kelly and the Maradona champion Rosser both lost.  Paul Chadbourne is facing another relegation battle if he continues to bet on crazy draws (although Everton were robbed of a point I suppose)

The Maradona League

Potential winnings: £2853 each
Result: 7/10

So far so Gurd for Simon, who is leading the way, closely followed by a resurgent Southworth, keen to bounce straight back after his first truly disappointing season.  The promoted Gary Lewis and Paul Shakespeare find winners in their first week in pastures new.

A barmy pick from Matt Haywood, dumps him into early season trouble, Wrigley picking with his heart (Blackpool) over his head and Richard Ingham join him.

The Gary Lineker League

Potential winnings: £5295 each
Result: 6/10

Dunk and Holland's downward spiral seems never ending as their Championship picks fail miserably.  They are joined at the bottom by two of our riskier pickers, both Pilkington and Wickett bounce more than Keeley on a running machine as their high risk, high return strategy doesn't look like stopping.

Steve Reeve has never ended a season in positive figures, but starts this season well, joined in the promotion zone by Darren Clare, who on the back of two solid seasons will also be looking to push on.  They are hotly pursued by Jones x2, Rodgers and Virdi.

The Paul Dickov League

Potential winnings: £3826 each
Result: 6/10

The tightest league last year, looks like being the tightest league again, as the top three are separated by only 12p.  Only Maloney leads from A Jones (that's Andrew, rather than A generic Jones.... although who knows maybe Andrew's middle name is generic).  Paul Kinsella (ella ella ella) seeks back-to-back promotions and starts well again.

Trevor Gibbons actually picks a winner to the shock of all and sundry, Hickey and Britcliffe going safe make up the winners.... bringing us on to the losers.  Having narrowly missed out on promotion Hughes' tactic of big winner in week one then consolidate has been destroyed, by his failure to pick a winner.  Nik Simms has now picked 1/11 and perhaps should consider letting an autopick help him now and then.  John Fields found the step up in class overwhelming in week one and may need to revisit his strategy in a more competitive league.  Craig has hit an all-time Lowe, after two successive positive figure seasons, and made the mistake of chasing value in the unpredictable Old Firm Derby.

The Jason Lee League

Potential winnings: £5339 each
Result: 8/12

Jonathan Stapleton has entered the building, announcing himself to the predicting world with a major first week pick and a place at the top of the league, in time a banker may well be referred to as being Stapled On, rather than nailed on..... okay maybe a bit carried away, but after Kinsella's barnstorming first season the world expects.  A plethora of winners in this big league, ranging from the ultra-cautious Hanvey, through the experienced (but rubbish) pros that are Ben Drury and Jamie Jones and fellow newbies Callan and Willshire to the man in second Daniel Lewis.

The losers range from the unlucky Ian Booth who managed to find one of the few short-priced teams that didn't come in, to the adventurous away-pick and draw-pick tactics of Ingham (J), Firth and Roberts.  Rule one of Weekend Predictor is always pick a winner in week 1 (rule 2 by the way is always pick a winner in week 2), it puts pressure on, and a losing streak is a lot easier to find than a winning streak.

 

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