Football betting
Despite the huge range of football bets available, the prediction of match outcomes, on a home / draw / away basis remains a firm favourite, particularly with those just starting out in football betting. The following seeks to guide the novice punter in betting on football and how to identify value betting opportunities.
Specialism
It is impossible to maintain a current, in-depth knowledge of more than a few teams. Specialising in a small selection of teams, particularly in the lower divisions, can help give the punter an edge over the bookmaker.
Information
Correct, current information is a valuable commodity in football betting, allowing punters to identify improving teams and those on the decline, good and bad runs before bookmakers' odds compilers are able to do so. Reading recent match reports, available all over the Internet, will show up results affected by luck or a seemingly lesser team having a particularly good day.
Recent Form
Recent form, both home and away is a crucial factor to consider. Some sides simple perform better in front of their home crowd, whilst others, who adopt a counter-attacking style of play, may do well "on the road," as a result of catching the more adventurous home team "on the break."
Head-to-Head
Trends in the recent history between the teams is well worthy of consideration. Some teams have definite "bogey" sides against which psychological factors make them more difficult to beat. However, disregard irrelevant "age old" encounters.
Fixtures
Check each team's fixture list. Often those involved in several competitions will tend to rest tired key players against lesser sides. Upcoming important fixtures may also play a part and it is well worth remembering that several top sides field weakened sides in "lesser" events, such as the Carling Cup.
Value Betting
Bookies set their odds to include an "overround" (bookmaker's percentage) so the majority of punters lose in the long-term. A value betting opportunity occurs when the odds offered exceed the bettor's conceived probability of a particular outcome. Successful punters exploit these apparent incongruities to enhance the odds in their favour and increase the chance of successful football betting. The other requisite is the discipline to bet ONLY at value prices. A value punter does not necessarily concentrate on short-priced bookmakers' favourites. Consider a match, say, Chelsea playing Birmingham at Stamford Bridge. A punter may consider the probability of the home win to be 67%, the away win 12.5% and the draw 20.5%. In this case, "fair" odds for Chelsea would be 1/3, Birmingham 8/1 and the draw about 5/1. For those with confidence in their probability estimate, Birmingham might be worth backing if, say, 10/1 is offered. Chelsea are the likely winners, but home favourites are generally priced on the low side in most bookmakers' odds. Many punters have won substantial sums by backing value bets, even when the winning chance seems unlikely. It makes sense that football betting has a better chance of being profitable if wagers are placed at the best odds on offer. Several "odds comparison" sites highlight the best prices from a wide range of online layers. Additionally, several useful Internet websites offer to calculate probabilities for forecasting match outcomes using recent match results, results of previous meetings, league standings, Poisson probability breakdowns etc. and provide a valuable asset to go alongside good horse racing betting tips.
